The New Zealand government’s lead over the opposition fell to 14% in April – the smallest lead since January 2020

Support for the Labor / Greens government fell from 2.5% to 55% in April. Support for the Labor Party fell 4% points to 41.5% in April (its lowest level of support since February 2020 before the pandemic) while support for the Greens rose 1.5% to 13.5 %.

The ruling parties are now 14% ahead of the parliamentary opposition National / Act NZ / Maori Party with 41%, up 6% since March. Support for National is now back to its highest level since last year’s election, up 6.5% to 29.5%, and is the highest in exactly a year since April 2020 at the start of the pandemic of COVID-19.

The resumption of support for National came from both the Labor Party and New Zealand’s Opposition Party Act, now at 9%, down 2% from March. Support for the Maori Party has increased and is up 1.5% points to a post-election high of 2.5% in April.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan poll on voting intentions was conducted by phone – landline and mobile – among a sample of 933 voters across New Zealand in April. Voters were asked: “If an election in New Zealand were to take place today, which party would get your party’s vote?Of all the voters polled, 6% (up 1.5 points) did not name a party.

Labor / Greens (55%) lead National / Act NZ / Maori (41%) opposition reduced to 14% points

In April, 55% of voters supported the Labor / Green government partnership, down 2.5% from March. The ruling parties are now 14% ahead of the parliamentary opposition National / Act NZ / Maori Party with 41%, up 6% since March.

This is the Labor government’s narrowest advance in over a year since January 2020, when Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s government led 53% cf. 43% on the opposition led by the national.

A small minority of 4% of voters back other minor parties outside Parliament with support for NZ First down 1.5% to 1% and The Opportunities Party (TOP) down 1.5% to 0.5% in April.

New Zealand government trust score virtually unchanged at 136 in April

In April, a slight increase of 62.5% of New Zealand voters (up 1%) said New Zealand was “going in the right direction” compared to just over a quarter, 26, 5% (up 0.5%) who said New Zealand was ‘going in the wrong direction’.

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, said the travel bubble between New Zealand and Australia finally opened in mid-April.

The long-awaited travel bubble between New Zealand and Australia finally opened on April 19, but reopening the borders has not spurred the Ardern government as other issues have dominated discussion in recent weeks .

Opposition Leader Judith Collins has slammed the government’s proposed reforms to New Zealand’s health system, which will remove the existing 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to be replaced by a single known national authority under the name “Health NZ”.

“Health NZ will operate four regional divisions and there will be a separate Maori health authority (MHA) empowered to develop health policy and commission health services specifically for Maori. Collins criticized the proposal because it argues that health problems stem from poverty rather than race and that racially segregating the health care system will not solve these problems.

“New Zealand’s stance on China and its contrast to its Five Eyes Alliance allies, including the US, UK, Australia and Canada, also made headlines. Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta said New Zealand was uncomfortable using the Five Eyes intelligence and security network to define New Zealand’s relationship with China and said New Zealand -Zeeland should “maintain and respect the customs, traditions and special values” held by China.

“Mahuta’s statement has been rebuffed by MPs from close allies, the UK and Australia, especially with regard to alleged human rights violations by the Chinese government against the Uyghur minority in Xinjiang. The opposition Act NZ party is expected to present a resolution to parliament in early May declaring China’s oppression of Uyghurs in Xinjiang as an “act of genocide,” which will further highlight the government’s position on the issue.

“These issues have clearly shaken support for the Labor / Greens coalition and the latest Roy Morgan poll in New Zealand shows they have the support of 55% of voters in April, down 2.5% from March and just 14% ahead of National- led the opposition by 41% – the narrowest margin since January 2020 before the pandemic. “

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single source. January 2020 – April 2021. Based: New Zealand voters 18 years of age and over. Average interviews per month = 925.

New Zealand Party Vote: Govt. v Parliamentary opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single source. January 2020 – April 2021. Based: New Zealand voters 18 years of age and over. Average interviews per month = 925.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single source. January 2020 – April 2021. Based: New Zealand voters 18 years of age and over. Average interviews per month = 925.

Summary of voting intentions

The following table compares the latest Roy Morgan polls in New Zealand on voting intention with the general election result of September 23, 2017:

* The 1996 election was the first New Zealand election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). In the 1996 elections, the Green Party ran for the Alliance political group along with four other political parties. ** The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Preference for both parties: government led by the Labor Party against parliamentary opposition parties

* In New Zealand’s 2020 election, Labor won 50.01% of the vote, which was enough to govern on its own, but Labor chose to sign a ‘cooperation deal’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three parties elected to the non-government parliament led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).