No one saw it coming. Even the press gallery failed to do so, even when it was called early for Monday’s briefing by New Zealand Prime Minister John Key – who unexpectedly announced his resignation.
This will take effect on December 12 when the National Party caucus elects a new leader and, in effect, a new prime minister.
Key would later leave Parliament, but close enough to the general election to avoid a by-election in his Helensville electorate.
We can speculate on hidden or ulterior motives, or even a caucus spill.
But, for now, we can just believe Key: that he is stepping down because he wants to ease the burden on his family.
He never saw himself as a career politician, so longevity in the job was never an end in itself.
Key’s legacy
Key will certainly be remembered as the prime minister who led New Zealand through disasters.
He came to power just after the 2008 global financial crisis. He did not impose strict fiscal austerity, choosing instead to borrow and spend.
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He saw the country through the horrific Canterbury earthquakes, the worst natural disaster since 1931, and the Pike River coal mine explosion that killed 29 people. Just recently another earthquake struck in Kaikoura and Key was there in the helicopter to boost morale and pledge government support.
On becoming prime minister, Key made a controversial promise that the New Zealand retirement pension would not be affected while he remained in office. It was not quite what one would expect from a center-right government.
So, now that he is leaving, we can expect a full discussion within the government as to whether the new prime minister should attack this right in some way or another, perhaps as a electoral politics.
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Key is a currency trader by training; that’s how he made his fortune. And so, he no doubt hopes that a leader will be remembered who boosted New Zealand’s economy and improved his chances in the world as an exporter.
But with the Trans-Pacific Partnership now practically a dead duck – thanks to US President-elect Donald Trump – he may not have much to brag about.
Nonetheless, Key has been a remarkably popular politician, serving as Prime Minister since November 2008. But his popularity in some opinion polls was starting to wane, even as the National Party’s brand continues to soar – with 48% support recently, up from 47% in the 2014 elections.
So, Key leaves while he is in front. He loved the job, but has had enough and wants to leave with integrity on his own terms. He starts as a leader, not a defeat.
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And after?
Many expected Key to lead the National Party to the next election, slated for late 2017, and therefore run for a fourth term. But, by stepping down now, he is making a clean break and allowing his successor to establish his leadership in the New Year.
It doesn’t have to be a shock. Any sane leader should think ahead of time to move forward and leave the field open to a competent successor. Unfortunately, few leaders do it this way, and their political life “ends in failure” – as British MP Enoch Powell once put it quite bluntly.
So, it is now “game” for the next prime minister and for the next elections.
The opposition Labor Party has just won an important by-election. It was a morale booster, and now the contest in the next election looks more promising for Labor leader Andrew Little.
Key’s successor is still unknown, but he strongly supported his deputy, Bill English, to succeed him.
English is much more of a career politician, having entered parliament in 1990. He led National to a disastrous defeat in the 2002 election, when the party won less than 21 percent of the vote. But English has behaved well as finance minister; he is considered a compassionate conservative and a sound economic thinker.
The next prime minister, whoever he is, has to think about post-earthquake reconstruction and inherits an economy that only seems to be doing well on the surface. It is largely boosted by immigration numbers and a construction boom, thanks to a housing shortage and an asset bubble.
New Zealand’s economy is not a rock star when it comes to labor productivity, and too many Kiwis are being left behind in real economic terms. Many find it difficult to make ends meet; many young people simply give up on the Kiwi dream of owning a safe home and having a decent chance to start a family.
Homelessness, house prices and inequality will emerge as critical issues in the next election.
The Labor Party has a new spring in its march, thanks to Key’s decision to step down. The outcome of the next election is not as clear as some experts thought.
Grant Duncan is Associate Professor in the School of People, Environment and Planning at Massey University.
Originally published in The Conversation.
